Cheat Lake, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

506
FXUS61 KPBZ 141459
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1058 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms continue across the region today and carry
a threat for localized flooding due to heavy rain. A cold front
approaches and crosses the region Thursday night into Friday, with
strong to severe storms possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and thunderstorms return mid morning through evening.
- Weak storm motion may result in localized flooding issues.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Little has changed in the overall synoptic pattern between yesterday
(Tuesday) and today. An upper trough is encroaching on the local
area from the west and southeasterly flow ahead of it has ushered in
a warm and deeply saturated airmass from the Mid-Atlantic
northwestward into the Ohio Valley. As the trough continues to
meander eastward, height falls overspread this warm sector which,
combined with destabilization owing to daytime heating and mixing,
will support shower and thunderstorm activity starting mid to late
morning and continuing through the evening. Coverage is not expected
to be as extensive as Tuesday, with multiple waves/rounds of
scattered showers and storms appearing to be the more plausible
scenario.

The best chance for lightning will be during afternoon hours
when the HREF suggests a 70% or greater probability of at least
500 J/kg SBCAPE across eastern OH, northern WV, and the majority
of western PA. Storm motion will again primarily be from south
to north, though mid- and upper-level steering flow remains
weak (generally <20 kts) resulting in slow storm motion that
could become more locally driven by outflow boundaries as the
day progresses. This, combined with the unseasonably moist
airmass (PWATs ~1.50 inches), could cause a few isolated
instances of backbuilding or training and a subsequent localized
flash flood threat. The scattered storm coverage will help
prevent a more widespread flood threat, but any areas that saw
heavy rain and flooding issues on Tuesday will need to keep an
eye to the sky as soils there are already saturated.

Similar to Tuesday, activity tapers in the evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Patchy fog could redevelop overnight in
areas that see rain during the day, and a few isolated showers
might linger along the ridges, but the forecast for Wednesday
night otherwise remains dry.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A cold front approaches the area Thursday night into Friday,
  bringing a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms during
  that time.
- All modes of severe weather (damaging winds, hail, and
  tornadoes) appear possible at this time.

----------------------------------------------------------------

A lead shortwave trough, ahead of a main central CONUS trough,
is expected to approach and cross the region late Thursday
night, along with its associated surface cold front. Speed and
directional shear is expected to increase with the approach of
the trough as instability is maintained Thursday night. Severe
storms are likely to develop to the west of the region late
Thursday, tracking eastward across the Upper Ohio Valley
Thursday night. The greatest uncertainty is the amount and
eastward extent of instability that remains across the Upper
Ohio Valley region, which would impact the severe weather
potential. Latest model data continue to indicate that these
storms could be maintained well into the overnight hours.

Model ensembles indicate a trough will track slowly eastward
across the Upper Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley region Friday.
The surface front is expected to slow its progress as the upper
level flow becomes more parallel to the front. Enough
destabilization and shear is expected again by late Friday morning
and afternoon to support a threat for strong to severe storms.
Confidence is still low on the Friday threat, however, due to
the possibility that early morning convection (noted in the
paragraph above) impacts the afternoon near-storm environment.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Unsettled weather continues Saturday as a cold front crosses
  the area.
- High pressure and drier weather build in Sunday into early
  next week in the wake of Saturday`s cold front.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The trough axis is expected to cross the region on Saturday,
with additional showers possible. Lower chances for showers are
expected on Sunday as the trough finally exits. A high amplitude
ridge forms over the central CONUS early next week between the
departing northern Atlantic trough to the east and another
trough deepening over the western CONUS. This pattern brings dry
weather back to the local area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper low will continue across the Ohio Valley today as it
weakens/fills and lifts north this afternoon and evening. VFR cu
should persist through the day, outside of KDUJ and KFKL where MVFR
cigs are expected today. Latest guidance has backed off on afternoon
convection, with best chances for precipitation holding off until
this evening. Have included Prob30s for the scattered showers, and
given timing, have removed TSRA mention for now.

Outlook...
Some patchy morning fog or stratus is possible early Thursday
morning with low level moisture in place. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely late Thursday night into Friday
morning, and again Friday afternoon and evening. Some of these
storms could be severe. Additional showers are possible with a
Saturday cold front. Mainly dry weather and VFR returns Sunday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cermak/Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Cermak
SHORT TERM...Cermak/Hefferan
LONG TERM...Cermak/Hefferan
AVIATION...88/WM